Vegetable Market Outlook: Demand Holds — But Supply Pressure Builds

The fresh produce markets experienced strong demand last week, providing solid support to vegetable prices despite a noticeable increase in volumes across key products. However, as we move beyond the Easter period, the focus is shifting. The key question now is whether demand can remain strong enough to absorb rising supply, or if markets are about to face increased downward pressure.

Potatoes: Strong Demand, But Pressure Ahead

Potato prices increased by 5% last week to R51.04 per 10kg, supported by improved demand despite a 19% increase in volumes. With fewer trading days, daily demand remained strong, helping to lift prices across major classes, including Sifras and Mondials. However, this week also has fewer trading days, and as post-Easter demand begins to normalize, prices may start to soften. With volumes expected to remain high, the likelihood of price pressure in the coming weeks is increasing.

Tomatoes: High Volumes to Weigh on Prices

Tomato prices rose slightly by 2% to R12.33/kg, driven by short-term demand support. However, prices remain approximately 30% lower than last year, largely due to volumes being 45% higher. Significant price differences between sizes persist, with large tomatoes trading at a premium compared to smaller grades. As demand typically declines after Easter and volumes remain elevated, the tomato market is likely to come under pressure. Historically, prices peak over Easter, suggesting a softer trend in the months ahead.

Onions: Volume-Driven Uncertainty

Onion prices declined by 2% to R69.06 per 10kg as volumes increased by 14% week-on-week. The direction of the market now largely depends on supply from Limpopo, which is expected to increase in the coming months. This seasonal influx typically places downward pressure on prices heading into spring. However, short-term factors such as heatwave conditions in the Western Cape could disrupt supply and temporarily support prices toward the end of the month.

Carrots: Seasonal Peak with Downward Risk

Carrot prices increased by 8% to R6.27/kg, even as volumes rose by 6%. Despite this increase, prices remain 21% lower than last year, reflecting significantly higher supply levels. With volumes still elevated and demand expected to ease, the market is likely to trend downward into early July. This aligns with typical seasonal patterns, where carrot prices peak around this time before declining.

Peppers: Post-Easter Pressure Expected

Pepper prices increased by 7% to R19.51/kg, with notable variation between green, yellow, and red peppers. However, this upward movement may be short-lived. As demand softens after Easter and production increases into May and June, prices are likely to decline. Seasonal trends suggest that prices could recover later in winter, particularly around August when supply tightens.

Other Vegetables: Mixed Movements

Across other vegetable categories, the market showed mixed performance. Cabbage, sweet potatoes, spinach, pumpkins, green beans, and cucumbers all recorded price declines, reflecting increasing supply. Butternut prices showed slight improvement, while garlic prices strengthened, particularly for local product. Overall, the trend across most vegetables points toward increasing supply beginning to outweigh demand.

Market Outlook: From Demand Support to Supply Pressure

In summary, last week’s vegetable market was supported by strong demand, but this is expected to shift in the coming weeks. As demand eases after Easter and supply levels remain high or continue to increase, downward pressure on prices is likely. Key products such as potatoes, tomatoes, and carrots are particularly exposed to this shift. While some short-term support may come from weather-related disruptions, the broader trend is moving toward a supply-driven market environment.