The national average weaner calf price rose by 1.8% to R31.30 per kilogram for calves weighing between 200 and 250 kg. Hand-to-hand sales traded at R31.73 per kg last week for this weight class, almost 8% higher than a year ago when it traded at R33.87 per kilogram. Lighter calves under 200 kg increased to R31.19, while heavier calves above 250 kg sharply rose to R32.61 due to better demand. The average price in the Free State traded at R30.49, while the price in Natal rose to R33.10. The A2/3 carcass price traded slightly higher at R52.56, while the C-grade price increased to R44.77 per kilogram.
Since most weaner calves are sold to feedlots annually, feedlot demand is a good indicator of potential price trends. I also spoke with millers, who reported that the demand for chop is currently peaking, suggesting that feedlots are running at capacity, which might reduce demand slightly. However, we should also see less supply from producers, which may lead prices to stabilize towards the end of the year. Then we may expect lower prices from January to mid-February. Slaughter prices may now, unfortunately, be near a peak.
In the sheep industry, the national average feeder lamb price decreased to R39.41 per kilogram, with the average slaughter lamb price also lower at R38.40. Direct sales show the feeder lamb price at R40.63, with slaughter lambs at R39.98. The average feeder lamb price in the Free State traded at R38.78, while the price in the Eastern Cape increased to R41.25 per kilogram. The A2/3 price fell slightly to R88.58, while the C2/3 price remained unchanged at R63.32 per kilogram. I still believe slaughter prices may improve in November and remain higher in December, assuming exports can resume. Unfortunately, we are now in a period when lamb prices usually decrease. Projections based on past years’ price movements indicate that lamb prices may continue to fall until late January, stabilize until late May, and then sharply rise in June and July. I’ll keep you updated if anything changes in this forecast. Share your thoughts on what you think might happen with prices in the comments below.
In the wool market, prices have fallen by about 1%, with RWS wool trading at R162.56 per kg (clean price), while non-RWS wool traded at R160.66 per kilogram. In Australia, the average wool price fell by 0.6% to AUS $11.31 per kilogram, with demand remaining relatively stable from major buyers like China and India, though buyers were noticeably more price-sensitive, which caused prices to dip slightly. European buyers’ demand is still quite limited, and they only purchase occasionally. Given the conditions, along with the Rand’s stability, local prices may decline slightly, but not significantly. We also had the 4th mohair auction last week, with the average price 1.2% higher at R336.65 per kilogram due to a slightly weaker Rand against the Dollar compared to the previous auction.
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Poultry prices dropped last week, with the frozen ex-abattoir price at R34.15, fresh prices down to R34.21, and the IQF price down to R31.38. As we approach the first week of November, this could indicate that prices may stabilize and possibly decline a bit.
Pork prices showed little movement, with the latest baconer price holding at R32.81, the porker price at R33.27, and the latest sausage pork price rising about 1% to R25.45 per kilogram. Early November is typically when pork prices start to plateau due to peak demand, though prices may remain near current levels for the rest of the year and then drop sharply in the new year.
In the goat market, prices have also started to decline, with the latest large goat price at R40.78, small goat prices down to R64.53, medium goats at R53.21, and goat ewe prices down to R52.58 last week.
There were also interesting movements in the feed market over the past week. The latest average Grade 1 lucerne price for producers dropped to R3000 per ton, with Supremes at R3900, and Grade 2 lucerne trading between R2700 and R2500 depending on foreign material. The Western Cape is still purchasing many Supremes and wants to secure them before they are downgraded to Grade 1s. The Eastern Cape received some rain, reducing their demand and pulling prices down. Exports are still going well.
The shortage of chop has worsened due to fewer white maize crops being milled, and feedlots running at capacity, leading to higher demand. The average price, therefore, increased to R4550 per ton last week. The supply is likely to remain relatively low for the rest of the year, but prices may decrease slightly if feedlot demand drops in December.