Welcome to this week’s AMT Meat Price Overview, proudly brought to you by John Deere.
This week, we’re asking an important question: Could lower feed prices and higher supers slaughter prices over the past few months soon flip the market on its head? And if producers start slaughtering in larger numbers because of these favourable prices, could that suddenly put downward pressure on the market?
As always, we look at the latest meat prices and what they mean for you as a producer. This episode is brought to you with pride by John Deere.
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Weaner Calf and Beef Market
The national average weaner calf price (200–250 kg) increased by almost 1% this week to R41.39/kg.
The Top 40% price—our benchmark for commercial weaner prices—also rose to R44.39/kg.
Provincial prices:
- Free State: R40.45/kg
- Eastern Cape: R39.05/kg
- North West: R42.02/kg
- Western Cape: R38.00/kg
Typically, demand softens as we approach December because feedlots reduce capacity slightly. But 2024 is different:
- Slaughter prices are exceptionally high,
- Chop (feed) prices have dropped sharply,
- Feeding costs are significantly lower.
This makes it attractive to buy in or feed calves yourself. This could support demand and keep weaner prices relatively firm.
But be cautious:
If the high slaughter prices of recent months encourage many producers to start slaughtering now, supply can increase quickly—and slaughter prices could fall sharply. The risk is very real.
Beef Slaughter Prices
The A2/3 slaughter price climbed to R73.33/kg (supers prices), excluding the Northern Cape where prices trade around R69/kg.
The C-grade price stands at R64/kg.
Seasonal trends suggest A2/3 prices may strengthen until just before Christmas. However, if many producers who fed their own animals now start slaughtering, this could create downward pressure earlier than expected. Keep an eye on this.
Sheep and Lamb Market
- Average store lamb price: steady at R50.88/kg
- Heavier slaughter lambs: R50.83/kg
Provincial store lamb prices:
- Free State: R51.82/kg
- Eastern Cape: R52.65/kg
- Northern Cape (mostly meat sheep): R45.92/kg
Store lamb prices will likely move sideways until about the second week of December and then trend lower as we move toward April 2025.
Carcass prices:
- A2/3: R107.45/kg
- C2/3: R82.71/kg
- AMT surveyed price (A-grade): R107.83/kg
- AMT surveyed price (C-grade): R78.60/kg
Seasonal patterns show slaughter prices remaining stable until mid-December before softening into the new year.
Wool Market
Wool prices remained stable:
- 20 micron RWS: R215/kg
- 20 micron non-RWS: R197/kg
- Average RWS price (SA): R211.14/kg
In Australia, prices dropped by 10c to AUS $15.04/kg, despite a more than 30% increase in supply due to attractive price levels for producers.
The fact that prices did not fall significantly despite large supply increases indicates continued strong demand from processors—good news for South African wool too. Higher micron wool is currently outperforming finer wools in demand.
So far, it has been an excellent year for wool:
Average Australian prices are 31.5% higher than a year ago due to lower supply and improving global demand.
Goat Prices
- Large goats: R50.36/kg (lower)
- Small goats: R61.48/kg (higher)
- Boer goat ewes: R61.81/kg
- Medium goats: R61.53/kg
Poultry Market
- Frozen ex-abattoir: R35.51/kg (sideways)
- Fresh chicken: down to R40.56/kg
- IQF: stable at R35.32/kg
My view remains that chicken prices are near a peak and may begin declining as we move toward year-end, with a likely low point around mid-January.
Pork Market
Prices moved higher again this week:
- Baconers: R39.52/kg
- Porkers: R39.89/kg
- Sausage pigs: R30.57/kg
Porkers could possibly break R40/kg in December, while baconers may stabilise around R39/kg. There is some upward potential left, but not much—especially if chicken prices start dropping.
Egg and Milk Prices
- Average graded eggs: R20.70/dozen
- Ungraded eggs: R16.63/dozen
- Milk price: stable at R6.95/litre
Feed and Lucerne Market
- Grade 1 lucerne: R3 800/ton
- Grade 2: R3 500/ton
- Premium lucerne: R4 500/ton
Chop prices continue falling, now at R2 650/ton. Millers are still processing large volumes, creating significant oversupply.
Normally, around this time of year mills begin negotiating to cover expected shortages over Christmas and New Year, pushing prices higher. However, 2024 looks different:
The surplus seems here to stay, which may keep chop prices low for longer.