Beef Prices
Calf prices mostly traded sideways, with the national average weaner calf price for calves between 200 and 250 kg slightly down at R36.51 per kilogram, and “out-of-hand” or direct sales at R37.85/kg. The average price is still about 13% higher than a year ago.
Lighter calves under 200 kg increased slightly to R36.45, while heavier calves between 250 and 300 kg dropped to R34.95 last week. Bull calves rose last week to R37.74, with heifer calves averaging R33.18.
The average price in the Free State dropped to R36.99, while Mpumalanga’s price is now at R37.24. The A2/3 carcass price traded higher at R67.75, while the C-grade price rose to R52.10/kg.
As mentioned last week, calf prices traditionally fall in May and June due to increased supply during weaning season, but lower local supply and limited imports, especially from Botswana and Namibia, can help maintain prices at a higher level.
We also need to consider the potential effect of Foot and Mouth Disease on prices. The big news this past week was that China halted all meat imports from South Africa due to the disease’s further spread. This might make feedlots more price-sensitive as we head into the weaning season.
However, I believe our local demand—still the biggest factor—remains strong, and that local supply is still lower, which should cancel out the impact of this announcement.
We export only a small percentage of beef, so the impact of such an announcement is mostly sentiment-driven and usually has a small effect on overall demand. That said, if we can improve animal traceability and get the disease under control, it could give our prices a good boost going forward.
Lamb Prices
As expected, lamb prices increased by about 1.5% last week, with the average feeder lamb price now at R45.90/kg. Slaughter lamb prices dropped to R47.80/kg.
Direct feeder lamb prices are now at R44.15, and direct slaughter lamb prices traded at R46.48/kg last week.
The average feeder lamb price in the Free State rose to R46.64, and in the Northern Cape—mostly meat sheep—the price is now R43.81/kg.
Seasonal trends still show that lamb prices can continue upward as we head into winter, with fewer animals coming to market. We also expect slightly fewer imports from Namibia this year.
Prices typically peak around the end of June, and it still looks possible that we could pass the R50 mark this year.
The A2/3 carcass price traded upwards at R102.45/kg, while the C2/3 price further dropped to R64.91/kg. Based on historical trends, the A2/3 should start gaining momentum now that we’re moving into May. Current forecasts suggest it could increase by about R10 in May, potentially peaking at the end of June. It will be interesting to see where consumer resistance starts playing a role.
Wool Prices
After chatting with the wool houses, we feel it might be better to link the average wool price to the 20-micron price in South Africa.
This will eliminate calculation errors and also be a better indicator of the difference between RWS and non-RWS prices.
The 20-micron RWS certified wool price dropped by 2% last week to R184/kg, and the non-RWS 20-micron price also declined to R170/kg clean mass.
Wool prices in Australia also dropped by 1.5% to an average of AUD $11.91/kg. Supply from Australia is falling rapidly simply because it’s no longer profitable at current prices.
Our stronger Rand has also pushed our prices lower and may continue doing so this week.
Chicken Prices
As expected, chicken prices rose again last week, with frozen ex-abattoir at R35.09, fresh prices at R37.88, and the IQF price holding steady at R34.60/kg.
I still think we could see slightly better prices until the end of the month, as high beef and lamb prices spill over into increased demand for chicken and pork, which helps keep prices higher than expected.
Pork Prices
Baconer prices dropped slightly, with the latest price at R32.42, porker prices down to R32.90, and the latest sausage pig price falling by 3% to R25.44/kg.
Better demand could possibly keep prices sideways, although seasonal trends suggest slightly lower prices are possible now.
Goat Prices
As expected, goat prices saw strong support. The latest large goat price jumped to R47.36, small goats to R56.66, medium goats to R54.95, while breeding female goats remained flat at R49.74/kg.
As mentioned last week, Qurbani demand should start driving prices up from the end of May to mid-June, which may result in higher goat prices.
The next period to watch is from August to early October, when more religious holidays occur.
Lucerne Prices
Lucerne prices are up, with the latest average Grade 1 price now at R4100/ton, premium lucerne at R4500, and Grade 2 lucerne rising to R3300/ton.
There is very little lucerne available, and local and export prices are trading very closely.
We’re also nearing the end of the season, with the first frost already having occurred.
Chop Prices
Chop prices continue to rise, now at R4250/ton due to ongoing severe shortages in the market.
Most millers are resuming milling this week as maize enters the market, which may increase chop supply and bring prices down again.
I also believe that as chop prices decrease, demand for calves from feedlots may increase.
