The latest weaner calf price increased by 1.5% to R32.07 per kilogram and is now about 5% higher than a year ago. The price in Mpumalanga rose to R33 while the price in Natal is already at R34.50. The A2/3 carcass price increased to R55.26 with the C-grade price decreasing to R43.42 per kilogram. I think the A-grade price can rise further and possibly remain trading just below the R60 mark in September and October while it seems that C-grade prices might stay between R42 and R43 until then.
Very interestingly, we looked at years when we had similar movements in weaner calf prices. So far, there is a 99% correlation with 2018, with this year’s prices trading approximately 7% lower on average than in 2018. It’s really not to say that we will continue to follow the trend, but if we do, we can see that weaner calf prices will peak just above R32 in August and then unfortunately trend downwards again and possibly trade below R30 as we get into November. I think there is a possibility that this trend will materialize with the larger herd and higher supply that we are still seeing.
In the sheep market, the feeder lamb price also increased by 1% to R40.87 per kilogram, which is now almost 3.5% lower than a year ago. The Eastern Cape and Natal price rose to R42 per kilogram while the Southern Free State price increased to R41. The C-grade price rose further to R58.06 while the A2/3 price rose to R85.70. It still seems to me that the A-grade price can rise further and possibly reach the R90 mark over the next month.
If we look at years when we had similar movements in lamb prices, we see that there is currently a 99% correlation with the 2021 season. The trend shows that we can realize better prices in July while it might drop back to the R40 mark in September. I do think we will see less movement in the prices from here on if we compare it to 2021. Again, this is based on a previous year that has so far followed a similar pattern, and it’s not to say that the rest of the year will be the same. But please leave me your comments on what you think of these comparisons.
Wool prices in Australia have also increased by 1.6%, and it appears that especially European buyers are returning to the market more strongly, pushing up demand and prices. This could mean that next season will be a better one for our wool farmers; I’m really keeping my fingers crossed.
Poultry prices are rising with the frozen price at R35.01, fresh prices rising to R34.33 while the IQF price remains flat at R29.09. The slightly stronger exchange rate might counteract the upward momentum a bit, but we still expect these prices to trend further upwards from early July to the end of the year.
The latest baconer price increased to R30.53 last week with the porker price higher at R31.65. The latest sausage pig price also increased and trades at R24.32 per kilogram. I did the same calculation for baconer prices and we see that there is currently a 98.4% correlation with the 2021 season which, if we continue to follow the trend for the rest of the year, indicates to us that prices could reach a low point in August and then trend upwards again until the end of the year.
Goat prices remain volatile with the latest large goat price rising to R51.91, small goats falling to R49.15, while goat ewe prices fall to R39.55 per kilogram. As mentioned, goat prices should rise over the winter months and then traditionally reach a peak at the beginning of Spring.
In the feed market, the latest grade 1 lucerne price fell last week to R3200 per ton.
