The national average weaner calf price rose by 1.6% to R33.48 per kilogram, with “off-the-hand” sales also higher at R33.95 per kilogram. This applies to calves weighing an average of 228 kg. Lighter calves, averaging 188 kg, traded at R32.48, while heavier calves, at 268 kg on average, came in at R32.60. The average price in the Free State decreased slightly to R33.28, while prices in North West traded at a solid R35.44 per kilogram. It’s important to note that these are average prices, and factors such as quality, type of animal, and supply and demand at specific auctions can impact prices.
We also saw the A2/3 carcass price sharply increase to R55.23, while the C-grade price rose to R48.34 per kilogram. Slaughter prices might peak in the week of December 20th, while weaner calf prices could soften slightly from current levels. Feedlots are currently operating near capacity and typically avoid being fully stocked over Christmas, which might reduce demand and cause a slight dip in prices. However, I wonder whether the extreme drought conditions in most production areas might impact supply, potentially leading to more animals entering the market and putting downward pressure on prices. Still, I believe the impact will likely be minimal, as most farmers will try to hold back livestock if possible, keeping calf prices stable.
The feeder lamb price dipped as expected, decreasing to a national average of R39.41 per kilogram, while the average slaughter lamb price increased to R39.31. Direct sales show the feeder lamb price falling to R39.66, with slaughter lambs significantly higher at R41.75. The average feeder lamb price in the Free State traded higher at R40.70, while the price in the Northern Cape sharply increased to R37.60 per kilogram. Unfortunately, the largest sheep production areas, the Free State and Northern Cape, are currently experiencing severe drought, with grazing conditions under pressure. Based on seasonal trends, lamb prices are expected to follow a downward trend and reach a low point by the end of January. If the drought persists, we might see more animals coming to market, but I believe 2025 will be a better year for sheep and beef farmers, with reduced supply keeping prices higher. The condition of the grain harvest will also play a significant role in determining whether we have a good sheep and beef season.
The A2/3 price unfortunately decreased last week to R86.76, while the C2/3 price fell to R62.42 per kilogram. It now seems unlikely that we’ll see R90 again this year, although there might be a slight increase just before Christmas.
There were no local wool auctions last week, but Australian prices unfortunately dropped by 0.17% to AUS $11.42 per kilogram, with demand remaining sluggish. Last week, China hosted a wool conference, noting that internal demand for wool products is insufficient to absorb supply, requiring a focus on export markets. However, challenges affecting their markets, including relations with Europe and America, could significantly impact export potential. A trade war with America, if it occurs, could further suppress prices in 2025. They also emphasized that the success and future of the wool industry should focus on its unique and functional properties.
Poultry prices remained stable, with the frozen ex-abattoir price at R33.51, fresh prices at R34.91, and the IQF price at R32.88 per kilogram.
Pork prices dropped significantly this past week, with the latest baconer price at R32.61, the porker price at R32.80, and the sausage pig price down to R25.19 per kilogram. We began to see a price decrease earlier this year, and while we hope for stability over the next week or two, a sharper decline is likely after Christmas and into the new year. Most purchases for the Christmas market have already been made, which could reduce demand and start to push prices down.
Goat prices were also under pressure last week, with the latest large goat price dropping to R27.79, small goat prices increasing slightly to R60.61, medium goats at R56.89, and goat ewe prices further declining to R32.38 per kilogram. Goat prices are expected to remain flat until January, but traditionally, we see a sharp decrease in February each year.
In the feed market, the latest average Grade 1 lucerne price for producers remained unchanged at R3100 per ton. Premium lucerne traded at R3750, while Grade 2 lucerne remained at R2600, depending on impurities.
Chop prices faced significant resistance due to lower demand from feedlots, with the average price dropping to R5000 per ton last week. Lower white maize prices could further push chop prices down in the coming week.