Last week, the national average weaner calf price for calves between 200 and 250 kilograms remained mostly sideways and is now trading at R36.69 per kilogram, with “out-the-hand” or direct sales lower at R37.03 per kg. The average price is currently 14% higher than a year ago. Lighter calves under 200 kilograms also decreased to R36.34, while heavier calves between 250 and 300 kilograms dropped to R35.56 last week. Bulk calves dropped to R37.46 last week, with mixed calves now averaging R33.86. The average price in the Free State dropped to R37.42, while the price in the Eastern Cape is now trading at R37.97. The A2/3 carcass price is higher at R66.49, while the C-grade price increased to R51.38 per kilogram. Weaner calf prices typically decline in May and June due to increased supply as we move into the weaning period. However, two factors must also be considered. Firstly, it is believed that Mouth and Hoof disease was detected in Gauteng and it seems to be spreading to other provinces. This could potentially keep average prices a bit lower, but if you have disease-free animals, you could earn a premium. The other factor that could support prices is that Botswana’s exports of live animals stopped at the end of April, which means there will be less supply coming in from there. This could also keep calf prices higher than seasonal trends suggest.
As expected, lamb prices rose by about 2% last week, with the average feeder lamb price now at R45.60 per kilogram. Slaughter lamb prices sharply increased to R48.83 per kilogram. Direct feeder lamb prices also increased to R45.52, while direct slaughter lamb prices jumped to R46.01 per kilogram last week. The average feeder lamb price in the Free State also rose to R44.77, with the price in the Eastern Cape higher at R45.47 per kilogram. Seasonal trends still indicate that lamb prices could trend upwards as we move into the winter months and fewer animals come to market. We also expect slightly fewer imports from Namibia this year. Prices typically peak around the end of June, so they could stay on an upward trend for now. The A2/3 carcass price remained sideways at R101.25 per kilogram, while the C2/3 price dropped to R65.07 per kilogram. Based on historical trends, the A2/3 should gain momentum as we move into May. Currently, forecasts indicate it could rise by about R10 in May, but it will be interesting to see how consumers react to rising prices and where consumer resistance may form. We expect the A2/3 to reach a peak by the end of June.
The RWS wool price dropped last week to R186.56, with the NON-RWS price also lower at R181.50 per kilogram. Wool prices in Australia sharply declined to an average price of AUS $12.10 per kilogram. After a one-week break, Australian wool auctions resumed in a very cautious sales environment, with buyers hesitant and sellers unwilling to lower prices significantly, leading to a national withholding rate of more than 15%. Merino wool fell sharply, with particularly fine wool seeing much lower demand. The uncertainty in the global supply chain is causing buyers to step back and reconsider where the markets are headed. This could also suppress our prices this week.
As expected, chicken prices rose last week, with frozen ex-abattoir prices at R34.78, fresh prices at R37.62, and the IQF price rising by 2% to R34.60 per kilogram. I still think we could see slightly better prices over the next two months, with high beef and sheep prices potentially spilling over into better demand for chicken and pork, thus keeping prices higher than expected.
Bacon prices maintained current levels with the latest bacon price at R32.60, while meat pig prices rose to R32.96, and the latest sausage pig price increased by 3% to R26.24 per kilogram. Better demand could potentially keep prices sideways, although seasonal trends suggest we may see slightly lower prices now.
The latest large goat price dropped to R30.62, while small goat prices increased to R52.45, medium goat prices fell to R48.38, and goat skin prices rose to R50.17 per kilogram. As mentioned last week, the main driver supporting goat prices now could be demand, with Islamic holidays creating additional demand. This year, the Qurbani demand is expected to increase from the end of May to mid-June, so we could see higher prices for goats. The next period to watch will be from August to early October, when there are more holidays.
Lucerne prices remained unchanged, with the latest average Grade 1 lucerne price now at R3600 per ton, prime lucerne at R4200, while Grade 2 lucerne stays at R3000 per ton.
Chop prices have dropped slightly to R3950 per ton, and we are now in a very interesting position in the chop industry. There is no maize to mill, and many of the mills are currently standing idle, leading to massive shortages for chop. Over the weekend, chop traded more expensive than yellow maize, and feedlots had to buy chop or maize if they could find anything. However, contract prices are still around R3950, but certain sales have gone higher. If more maize comes to market, the price may start to decrease.
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