The national average weaner calf price remains stable, with the price for calves between 200 and 250 kg now at R31.21 per kilogram. Direct sales traded at R32.60 per kg last week for this weight class, which is about 8% higher than a year ago when it was R34.08 per kilogram. Lighter calves under 200 kg have risen to R31.78, while heavier calves above 250 kg are trading at R29.02 per kilogram. The average price in the Free State is R30.52, while in the Western Cape, it’s R31.27 per kilogram. It’s worth noting that these are average prices, and quality, type of animal, and demand and supply at a specific auction will influence the price. We’ve also seen the A2/3 carcass price trade slightly higher at R52.75, while the C-grade price has risen to R45.42 per kilogram.
It currently appears that the weaner calf price could maintain its current levels, or even slightly higher, for the rest of the year. However, we may see the price dip in January, rise slightly from mid-February, then decline again and hit a low point around mid-April next year when supply traditionally peaks.
In the sheep industry, the national average feeder lamb price dropped further and is now R38.63 per kilogram, with the average slaughter lamb price at R38.48. For direct sales, the feeder lamb price is R39.63, and slaughter lambs are at R38.50. The average feeder lamb price in the Free State trades at R40.23, while in the Western Cape, it rises to R39.34 per kilogram. The A2/3 price dropped slightly to R88.12, while the C2/3 price remained unchanged at R63.93 per kilogram. I think we could expect much better slaughter prices in November, with forecasts indicating we may approach the R92 mark by the end of November. Better demand and a potential drop in interest rates could boost the market again, or at least I hope so, to bring some relief to our producers during the festive season. As mentioned last week, we are unfortunately in a period when lamb prices usually fall. Forecasts, based on past price movements, indicate that lamb prices may continue to fall until the end of January, stabilize until the end of May, and then rise sharply in June and July. But I’ll keep you updated if anything changes this outlook.
In the wool market, prices dropped by about 0.5%, with RWS wool at a clean price of R161.80 per kg, while non-RWS wool dropped to R159.47 per kilogram. In Australia, the average wool price fell by 0.5% to AUD 11.25 per kilogram, mostly due to low demand from China and European markets. This may keep our local prices under pressure this week, but watch the Rand’s movement. If it weakens due to the US election results, our prices may rise slightly.
Poultry prices dropped last week, with the frozen ex-abattoir price at R33.48, fresh prices down to R34.01, and the IQF price steady at R31.38 per kilogram. I feel these prices could hold steady for the rest of the year.
There was also little movement in pork prices, with the latest baconer price holding at R32.81, porker price up slightly to R33.37, while the latest sausage price dropped by 2% to R24.91 per kilogram. As mentioned last week, we’re now at a point where pork prices could begin to stagnate due to demand reaching a peak this time of year. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen a price increase over the past two months compared to previous seasons. The demand factor is unfortunately much lower, putting pressure on the entire value chain. However, the price is expected to stay close to current levels for the rest of the year, then drop sharply in the new year.
In the goat market, prices have also started to decline, with the latest large goat price at R39.80, small goat prices down to R56.34, medium goats now at R49.01, while goat ewe prices dropped to R48.28 last week. Various festivals keep goat prices high over the spring months, but I feel these market prices may now decrease, reaching a potential turning point around March next year.
In the feed market, the latest average Grade 1 lucerne price for producers remained unchanged at R3000 per ton, Supremes are still at R3900, while Grade 2 lucerne trades at R2600, depending on foreign material. The Western Cape continues to buy Supremes while exports are still going out.
The high maize price caused some mills to halt production last week due to consumer resistance to the high prices. This created a natural shortage of chop, with the average price rising to R4650 per ton last week. The maize price will now play a significant role in determining the chop price, with cheaper maize starting to enter our neighbouring countries. This may cause local maize prices to start stagnating, but we still think they could remain relatively high until the end of the year.