The national average weaner calf price reached a turning point last week, dropping by almost 3% to R32.96 per kilogram, with “out-of-hand” sales also lower at R33.19 per kg. These prices are for calves averaging 220kg. Lighter calves averaging 180kg traded at R32.91, while heavier calves averaging 273kg were priced at R31.20. The average price in the Free State also dropped to R33.35, while prices in Natal stood at R33.25 per kilogram. Note that these are average prices, and factors such as quality, animal type, and specific auction supply and demand can influence prices.
We also saw the A2/3 carcass price increase to R53.86, while the C-grade price dropped slightly to R47.47 per kilogram. It seems likely that slaughter prices could peak during the week of December 20th, while weaner calf prices may maintain current levels until mid-February. If there is an uptick in restocking purchases, prices could rise slightly until the end of February, but we typically see a sharp decline as the weaning period begins and more supply enters the market.
The feeder lamb price held steady, rising 0.2% to a national average of R39.82 per kilogram, while the average slaughter lamb price remained flat at R39.22. For direct sales, the feeder lamb price was R40.28, and slaughter lambs traded lower at R39.16. The average feeder lamb price in the Free State rose to R40.68, while prices in the Northern Cape unfortunately dropped sharply to R35.24 per kilogram. The major sheep areas of the Free State and Northern Cape are currently very dry, with grazing conditions under pressure. If these conditions persist, farmers may be forced to market more sheep, which could push prices down further. I suspect this is what’s currently happening in the Northern Cape.
However, based on seasonal trends, lamb prices are expected to decline further, reaching a low point by the end of January. After that, lamb prices should pick up nicely over the first half of the year. I suspect that 2025 sheep prices may be higher than those of 2024 due to reduced supply entering the market next year. Demand might also increase in 2025 due to lower interest rates, while Namibia is expected to export less to South Africa. Additionally, local farmers may market fewer sheep, all indicating better producer prices for our farmers in 2025 compared to this year.
As expected, the A2/3 price increased last week to R87.02, while the C2/3 price dropped to R63.26 per kilogram. It now seems unlikely that we’ll see R90 again this year, though a small increase might still be possible.
In the wool market, prices increased nicely, with RWS clean prices at R166.89 per kilogram and non-RWS wool prices rising to R164.21 per kilogram. In Australia, the average wool price increased by 0.4% to AUS $11.44 per kilogram, driven by slightly better purchases from China and Europe. Total sales in Australia are currently about 19% lower than last year, helping to keep prices at relatively higher levels.
Poultry prices have risen significantly, with the frozen ex-abattoir price up 1.9% to R33.51, fresh prices rising by 2.5% to R34.91, and IQF prices increasing by 5% to R32.88 per kilogram. The weaker Rand from a month ago is now impacting the market, particularly pushing IQF prices upward. Concerns about South Africa’s relationship with the USA and Trump’s threats of sanctions against BRICS countries could also push prices higher, setting up an interesting 2025.
There wasn’t much movement in the pork industry last week. The latest baconer price stands at R33.02, the porker price at R33.48, while the latest sausage pig price dropped slightly to R25.67 per kilogram. As mentioned last week, it seems we are nearing the annual peak, with prices likely to remain near current levels until just before Christmas before declining as we move into the new year.
Goat prices came under significant pressure last week. The latest large goat price dropped to R39.11, small goat prices fell to R55.58, medium goats are now at R46.94, and goat ewe prices declined to R40.81. Goat prices may remain sideways until January, but we typically see a sharp drop in February each year.
In the feed market, the latest average Grade 1 lucerne price for producers remained unchanged at R3100 per ton, while premium lucerne traded at R3750 and Grade 2 lucerne remained at R2600, depending on foreign material content. The average chop price increased to R5300 per ton last week due to white maize prices also shooting up.
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