Welcome back to this week’s AMT John Deere Grain Market Overview.
There’s big news on the international front — China and the United States have finally reached a trade agreement, which is great news for global markets and for us here in South Africa. On top of that, the first planting intentions for the new season have been released. Let’s take a look at what this means for local grain prices.
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🌽 Maize Market Overview
- White maize spot price declined last week to R3,725/ton, with July 2026 futures trading at R3,658/ton.
- Yellow maize spot price dropped to R3,581/ton, while July 2026 is at R3,586/ton.
The first planting intentions report brought a few surprises.
According to the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), farmers plan to plant about 1.6 million hectares of white maize — roughly 1% higher than last year — and just over 1 million hectares of yellow maize, up 5% year-on-year.
That brings total maize hectares to 2.665 million, up 2.66% from last season.
Assuming yields remain similar to last year’s 6.29 tons/ha, we’re looking at a potential crop of 16.8 million tons.
This means that, unless something drastic happens, maize prices should remain close to export parity, currently around R3,524/ton — very near to where yellow maize is trading now.
I’ve said this before, but it’s worth repeating: the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn price will likely drive the next moves. Currently at $4.28/bushel, most analysts in the U.S. believe we’re near the bottom of the market, with room for an upward correction as global sentiment improves.
🌱 Soybean and Sunflower Trends
Soybeans: Planting intentions rose 2.45% to 1.17 million hectares, suggesting continued confidence in the crop.
Sunflower seed, however, surprised the market — down 4.4% to 531,100 hectares, against expectations of an increase.
Groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans were all significantly lower than last year, likely because many producers struggled with prices and margins over the past season.
If yields match last season’s levels, we can expect:
- Soybean production: about 2.82 million tons
- Sunflower production: around 677,000 tons
Soybean prices should remain near export parity, with Brazil’s parity at R7,520/ton and the U.S. at R7,278/ton. The new China–U.S. trade deal is likely to boost these levels further.
China has agreed to purchase 14,000 tons before January and 25,000 tons over the next three years.
Global demand for processed soybean products remains strong, and even record production levels are struggling to keep pace.
Brazil is currently planting another record crop, which could put downward pressure on prices — but any weather disruptions there could quickly turn the market upward. Keep a close eye on that region as the season unfolds.
Sunflower seeds are processed locally, and we still import edible oils, meaning international markets — especially the Black Sea region and Ukraine — remain key in determining price trends.
🌾 Wheat, Canola, and Other Winter Crops
The third production forecast from the CEC for winter grains remained mostly unchanged:
- Wheat: just above 2 million tons
- Canola: slightly revised upward by 0.1% to 312,000 tons
Since South Africa imports around 50% of its wheat annually, local markets will continue to follow import parity prices.
International wheat prices are currently:
- U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat: around R6,200/ton
- Russia: R6,100/ton
- Australia and Germany: around R5,950/ton
Local harvest pressure is keeping prices slightly lower, but we could see a gradual rise once the year-end passes — potentially maintaining an upward trend into mid-2026.
💱 The Exchange Rate Factor
Finally, a word on the Rand, currently around R17.30 to the U.S. dollar.
Since parity prices depend heavily on the exchange rate, it’s crucial to monitor this closely.
Predicting currency movements is nearly impossible, but here are a few key factors to watch:
- If interest rates decline and gold prices drop, the Rand could weaken.
- However, being removed from the grey list and potentially upgraded out of junk status could strengthen the currency.
Some economists believe the Rand is undervalued, and while returning below R17/$ will require several positive developments, we’re seeing encouraging signs of recovery. The right economic decisions are being made to steer South Africa forward — and that’s something to feel optimistic about.
🎧 Final Thoughts
This week’s grain market shows a mixed bag — slightly softer maize and soybean prices, a steady wheat outlook, and renewed optimism from global trade developments.
This episode is proudly brought to you by John Deere and Zimmatic Irrigation Systems.
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