The spot price for white maize has risen week-on-week to R5,435, while the price for July 2025 has also increased to R3,825. The yellow maize spot price has risen week-on-week to R4,295, with the July 2025 price now at R3,740 per ton. Internationally, the CBOT price has strengthened slightly, partly due to Hurricane Helene, which caused damage to crops. However, there are concerns that once all weather factors are priced in, harvest pressure could slightly depress prices, though it is not expected to be enough to push us to a new low. The 8th production estimate was released last week, showing that white and yellow maize have been adjusted downwards by 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively, resulting in the smallest harvest since 2019. This could mean we may see shortages in the short term, with spot prices potentially rising further by the end of the year. Additionally, we are seeing shortages in Zambia and the DRC, which import a lot of flour from South Africa, potentially keeping white maize prices elevated.
The spot price for soybeans has increased week-on-week to R8,655, while the May 2025 price has risen to R7,705 per ton. The sunflower spot price has also risen week-on-week to R9,560, with the May 2025 price at R9,156 per ton. CBOT soybeans have strengthened due to drought conditions in Brazil, providing price support, as well as Hurricane Helene possibly causing crop damage. Internationally, we are monitoring the weather in Brazil, soybean imports by China, the country’s response to import tariffs, and the quality of soybeans in the US, as these factors are currently driving prices. The production estimates committee adjusted soybean production upwards by 1.8% last week, while sunflower was adjusted downwards by 2.08%. Looking at the sunflower chart, we see it has tested the upper level three times since September last year without breaking through. We suspect that if sunflower can break through this level, there will be further upward potential for this market.
The wheat spot price has decreased to R5,736, with the December price at R5,846 per ton. CBOT wheat fell over the past week, mostly attributed to harvest pressure in the US. Internationally, Russia has adjusted its wheat harvest downwards by nearly 1 million tons due to drought in one area and flooding in another. Ukraine is also revising its wheat harvest due to drought in production areas. This could potentially bring some support back to the market.
Locally, however, we see that wheat has further weakened and that there may still be downward price pressure as we approach harvest time. The 2nd production estimate for wheat has been adjusted upwards by 1.86%, and they expect a wheat harvest of nearly 1.94 million tons.
The import parity price for sorghum landed in Durban rose last week to R5,856 per ton, while the producer’s import parity price for shelled Argentine peanuts decreased to R25,951 per ton, and the cotton import parity price is trading at R10,120 per ton.