Weekly Grain Market Overview | 3 December 2025

 by Student in Agricultural Insight, Grain Market, Grains, Weekly Market Overview Leave a Comment

WEEKLY AMT JOHN DEERE GRAIN MARKET OVERVIEW

Welcome back to this week’s AMT John Deere Grain Market Overview. The final crop estimate has been revised upward, China has resumed soybean purchases from the United States, while the outlook for wheat remains subdued. But what happens if we experience a drier second half of the season? Today, we unpack what all of this could mean for prices as the season progresses.
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Market Overview

  • White maize spot price declined to R3 650/ton, with the July 2026 contract at R3 604.
  • Yellow maize spot price dropped to R3 595/ton, with July 2026 at R3 570/ton.
  • Soybean spot price eased to R7 000/ton, while the May 2026 contract is down to R7 095/ton.
  • Sunflower seed spot price fell to R10 300/ton, with the May 2026 contract at R9 000/ton.
  • Wheat spot price declined further to R5 638/ton, with December 2026 at R5 931/ton.
  • Sorghum import parity (Durban) stands at R4 713/ton.
  • Shelled Argentine groundnuts are at R23 396/ton, while cotton has increased to R9 820/ton.

Maize Market Insights

Yellow maize spot and July SAFEX prices are currently trading around R100 above US export parity. This suggests the market may be pricing in a degree of uncertainty around the local crop—possibly due to overly wet conditions now and the risk of a drier second half of the season.

Spot prices typically trade above parity this time of year due to expected supply tightness through late January and mid-February. White maize in particular is supported by increased demand from Zimbabwe, and historically, local spot prices often peak toward the end of January.

However, the upward revision of the 2024/25 final crop estimate could cap price gains. The total crop is now estimated at just over 16.4 million tons, comprising just under 8.4 million tons of white maize and 8 million tons of yellow maize.

For delivery months like May and July next year, prices are likely to stay close to parity—unless weather conditions deteriorate sharply.

The US export parity price in Durban remains just above R3 500, with Randfontein around R3 100. A positive sign from the US market is that maize demand and exports—especially to Mexico—remain at record levels, offering some price support. Their crop may also be revised lower in the next USDA report.

But the smaller US cattle herd and lower oil prices could keep ending stocks stable and limit upside potential. My expectation is still for moderate upward movement in CBOT maize, which could lift local prices slightly, though gains should remain limited. Much will depend on how the local crop develops, especially since many farmers planted early and are hoping the bulk of the maize, soybean, and sunflower crops are established before a potential dry spell.

In Zambia, severe load-shedding is affecting milling capacity. If the situation worsens, South Africa may see increased demand for maize meal exports into Zambia and the DRC—potentially supportive for white maize over the next two months.

Soybean Market Insights

The final soybean crop has also been revised higher to over 2.77 million tons, which has placed pressure on local spot prices.

Another large crop is expected this coming season, and soybeans are generally more resilient under wetter conditions than maize. Export parity therefore remains the most realistic price outlook, making CBOT trends especially important.

Brazil’s plantings—estimated to be up 3.5% year on year—combined with reduced US soybean exports to China, continue to weigh on CBOT soybean prices. However, we may see some support in the next month or two if Chinese purchases increase sharply.

There have been a few recent cases of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China with quality issues. If this escalates, China may be forced to source more from the US, although at this stage it does not appear to be a major concern.

Wheat Market Insights

The wheat market remains under pressure, with prices moving lower each week. Local deliveries are progressing exceptionally well, and combined with strong global production levels, the result is downward price movement.

However, in the new year, once harvest pressure eases, we could see some improvement in local wheat prices.

In Closing

That wraps up this week’s AMT Grain Market Overview, proudly brought to you by John Deere and Zimmatic.

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I’m Dr. Johnny van der Merwe—thank you for tuning in.

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