The spot month white maize price drops to R4655 per ton, with the July price higher at R4384. The yellow maize spot price drops to R4350, with the July price lower at R4269 per ton. The soybean spot price drops to R7650, with the July price lower at R7805 per ton.
The sunflower spot price drops to R8850 per ton, with the July price lower at R9060 per ton. The wheat spot price drops to R6400, with the December price now at R6250 per ton.
The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban stands at R5207, with shelled Argentine groundnuts at R23,739, and the cotton price now at R10,660.
CBOT prices have been very volatile lately, especially for maize and soybeans, while wheat prices are struggling to gain any momentum. The single biggest factor influencing maize and soybean prices right now is the trade war between the USA and China, and it feels as though we are now on a knife-edge, with the markets able to move in either direction depending on where the trade war goes.
The USA’s domestic maize stock remains low, and weather conditions there are starting to play a larger role in the market price movements. Currently, planting is going well, but the west is drier and the east wetter than usual. On the other hand, they are dealing with the trade war, where there is little demand for their maize except from Japan and Mexico, and lower demand could again have a negative effect on prices. In the soybean industry, forecasts suggest fewer soybeans will be planted, and any weather problems could have a significant impact on prices, but the trade war has a major impact on the soybean industry as China is no longer importing US soybeans. All these factors make the market very unpredictable at the moment, and it’s almost impossible to make any predictions because things can change in moments.
At the beginning of the week, we saw that the markets for maize, soybeans, and sunflower dropped. There are many stories of soybeans and maize starting to sprout and rot due to the heavy rains, but this is only in certain areas, and the majority of the crop is still in good condition, and we are seeing the market prices begin to respond downwards as more volumes come to market. Our expectation is that summer grain prices will now come under pressure as more volumes reach the market, and harvest pressure is now becoming a reality. What we also need to watch out for is the exports to our neighboring countries, which could push prices further down later in the season if our expected exports do not materialize.
