Weekly Grain Market Overview | 28 August 2024

 by Student in Agricultural Insight, Grain Market, Grains, Weekly Market Overview Leave a Comment

The latest white maize spot price is rising week by week to R5,392, while the Jul’25 price drops to R3,867 per ton. The yellow maize spot price is falling week by week to R3,950 per ton, while the Jul’25 price drops to R3,675. For the 2024/25 marketing season, we see that 4.8 million tons of yellow maize have been delivered and 4.7 million tons of white maize, which so far make up 70% and 74% respectively of the current harvest estimate. Compared to the 2023/24 season, there are 36% fewer white maize and 21% fewer yellow maize delivered to date. The soybean spot price drops week by week to R8,485, with the May’25 price rising to R7,615 per ton. The sunflower spot price rises week by week to R8,950, and the May’25 price drops slightly to R8,650 per ton. We are now in the 25th week of the marketing season for sunflowers and soybeans, and we see that approximately 96% of the expected soybean tons have been delivered, while 95% of sunflowers have been delivered. Comparing total tons delivered to last year, there are about 35% fewer soybeans and 12% fewer sunflowers delivered. The wheat spot price drops to R6,200, with the December price at R6,117 per ton. The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban rose last week to R5,509 per ton, while the producer import parity price of shelled Argentine groundnuts further decreased to R28,100 per ton. The cotton import parity price rose to R9,940 per ton. The latest harvest estimates will also be released on Tuesday, so be sure to keep an eye on our social media channels.

CBOT corn prices continue in a downward trend over the past week due to the expected large harvest now ahead. Some American analysts feel that the corn and soybean markets could return to the levels of 2014 to 2020, where there was less volatility in the markets, mostly due to lower demand and higher supply compared to the period from 2020 to now.

Soybeans are unfortunately in the same boat as corn with a large harvest and many volumes now coming to the markets. We have seen that China has started importing more from the USA last week, which was a bit of good news, but unfortunately, it has not yet had a real effect on prices. Analysts are unsure if these purchases will be enough to support prices given the enormous large harvest expected and the fact that there is still grain sitting in silos on farms.

 

In the wheat market, France has reported that their current harvest could be the smallest since 1980. This news has also not had a real effect on prices, and the CBOT wheat price remains in a downward trend. The weaker Dollar of the past few weeks makes American grain and oilseeds cheaper now, which could potentially spur exports and at least absorb the large harvest to some extent.

Locally, the exchange rate continues to have the greatest effect on SAFEX price movements, as there is not necessarily new news in our local market. If the USA announces interest rate cuts in September, we might see the Rand strengthen further, which could put pressure on local prices. However, if they do not lower rates, the Rand could weaken and support prices again. Our feeling is that the Rand could remain at a stronger level until September 19, thus keeping yellow maize, soybeans, sunflowers, and wheat prices suppressed. White maize prices, however, should not be greatly affected by these movements and should gradually trend upwards as we move towards the end of the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

StudentWeekly Grain Market Overview | 28 August 2024

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