The white maize spot price fell by more than R600 per ton on Monday to R5253 per ton, with the July ’25 price actually rising to R4212. The yellow maize spot price rose by R380 to R5250 on Monday, with the July ’25 price higher at R4096 per ton. The soybean spot price increased by R1000 in one day to R9173, with the May ’25 price falling to R7486 per ton.
The sunflower spot price dropped to R8621 per ton, with the May ’25 price standing at R8580 per ton. The wheat spot price rose to R6186, with the Dec ’25 price now at R6214 per ton.
The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban at R5189, with shelled Argentine groundnuts at R20,879 and the cotton price now at R10,280.
When we look at international news again, we see that there are several factors causing CBOT prices to be very volatile. President Trump recently stated that he wants to implement extra costs on all ships in U.S. ports built by the Chinese. If this happens, the industry expects it to put a lot of pressure on agriculture, as well as coal exports, and soybeans could become between 9 and 27 cents per bushel more expensive, which will negatively affect the demand for exports. It is also expected that more maize and fewer soybeans will be planted this season in the U.S.
In terms of wheat, we see that the area where most U.S. wheat is produced is drier than usual, which is supporting wheat prices. The recent attack by Russia on a port in Ukraine has also helped push wheat and possibly sunflower prices up. The soybean harvest in South America still looks huge, but it remains very uncertain what tariffs the U.S. will impose and against whom, and how it will impact the markets.
Locally, we see that white maize and sunflower spot prices dropped sharply on Monday because many traders had to close their long positions and started selling as the March contracts expired. The oversupply of sales caused prices to drop, and this had little to do with the fundamental factors. On the other hand, soybeans and yellow maize prices rose strongly as many traders had to buy back their short positions, creating extra buying pressure that caused soybean prices to rise by up to R1000/ton. There was reportedly a fault in the SAFEX system, and the amount was capped at R1000, so the rise could have been even higher. The ship bringing in soybeans was also late, and together with the rain, this created physical shortages. These short positions that had to be closed then caused large shortages and pushed prices sharply up.
Wheat prices, however, remain on their normal upward trend because more than 90% of the crop has already been delivered, and prices could gradually rise further now. Our expectation is that summer grains could continue their downward trend, with the biggest drop in spot prices expected to occur between April and May for maize. For the new season, it’s important to look at the crop estimate that will be published on Wednesday, March 26, as well as the U.S. planting intentions, which will be available on April 1. My feeling is that May and July prices could be further suppressed if the crop estimate is adjusted upwards, but we will have to see what the crop estimates committee comes up with on Wednesday.
