The latest white maize spot price has decreased week-on-week to R5,344, while the July ’25 price has dropped to R3,930 per ton. The yellow maize spot price has decreased week-on-week to R4,095 per ton, while the July ’25 price has dropped to R3,753. In the week of August 3rd to 9th, we exported 23,760 tons of white maize and 14,371 tons of yellow maize, mostly to our neighboring countries. However, during the week of July 27th to August 2nd, we imported 20,574 tons of yellow maize at Cape Town port and have already imported 134,921 tons of yellow maize for the season, while last year we imported none. The soybean spot price increased week-on-week to R8,400, with the May ’25 price now at R7,600 per ton. The sunflower spot price increased week-on-week to R8,960, while the May ’25 price dropped to R8,636 per ton. The wheat spot price fell to R6,225, with the December price at R6,121 per ton. In the week of August 3rd to 9th, 69,296 tons of wheat were imported through Durban, mostly from Australia, and we currently stand at 1.8 million tons of wheat imports for the year. To put this in context, last year by this time, we had only realized 1.2 million tons of imports.
The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban decreased last week to R5,499 per ton, the producer import parity price of shelled Argentine peanuts fell to R28,767 per ton, while the cotton import parity price is trading at R9,870 per ton.
On the international markets, analysts are still concerned about the large U.S. maize and soybean crops that are currently in the fields and the downward effect this has on prices. Weather patterns also remain favorable, U.S. producers still have a lot of grain stored on farms in silos, and we see that exports remain at a lower level than in previous years. It seems that maize prices may maintain lower levels until the second half of September, but remember that China usually starts participating in the market around this time, which may support prices or at least create a floor. Locally, there is no new news, and international prices and the exchange rate will play the biggest role in local prices for now. It will be interesting to see where the Rand moves once the interest rate cuts start taking effect in the U.S. and here. My feeling is that we may weaken a bit once our local interest rates are adjusted downward.
Unfortunately, there is still downward potential for soybean prices as U.S. carryover stocks are at their highest in the past six years. U.S. analysts expect the price to have to trade even lower before China begins participating in the market. The sentiment is that if South America experiences weather problems when they start planting and throughout the season, it could bring support back to the market and push prices into an upward trend again. Locally, we expect prices to follow international prices and therefore remain under pressure for now.
Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer and has shown great interest in importing wheat from the U.S. However, they only imported a small portion of it, and U.S. wheat prices suffered as a result. France’s wheat has been downgraded by 1%, with only 48% of the crop now rated as good to very good. This has not caused prices to move upwards, and some analysts believe the industry has not yet realized how little global supply there is, and we may see support return to international prices later in the season. Locally, we do expect prices to trade slightly upward for now.
