The white maize spot price rose week-on-week to R6,320, while the July ’25 price rose to R4,061. The yellow maize spot price increased week-on-week to R4,931, with the July ’25 price now at R3,871 per ton. The soybean spot price rose week-on-week to R9,099, while the May ’25 price stands at R7,450 per ton.
The sunflower spot price fell week-on-week to R11,051, with the May ’25 price at R9,950 per ton. The wheat spot price increased week-on-week to R5,841, with the December price at R5,905 per ton. The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban at R5,466 per ton, while the producer import parity price for dehulled Argentine groundnuts is trading at R27,587 per ton, and the cotton import parity price is at R10,000 per ton.
The major news affecting our local market this week was the weakening of the Rand against the US Dollar, which, as mentioned earlier, was driven by the Dollar trading much stronger. This caused CBOT prices to fall on one hand, but pushed SAFEX prices up on the other hand. This led to higher import and export parity levels, and all prices have been trading strongly upwards.
Internationally, however, CBOT prices generally fell, and all prices are now at a lower level than a week ago. CBOT maize prices also decreased over the past week due to lower exports and reduced demand, but the price remains in a long-term upward trend since the low point we saw in August.
Locally, there hasn’t been much new news affecting the maize market, with supply still relatively scarce. In fact, I think that lower demand would have caused spot maize prices to fall if we were to look at it in isolation. On the international front, prices have also come down, so we can assume that the largest upward pressure on prices has come from the exchange rate. If we want to know where maize prices are headed by the end of the year, we may need to keep an eye on the exchange rate. It’s really difficult to predict because there are so many factors that can influence it. My expectation is that the Rand’s weakening is likely temporary, and we could go back to the R17.50 level before the year ends. If that happens, prices may come down a bit, but the spot price is likely to maintain relatively high levels until February due to limited supply. My feeling is still that producers should hedge a significant portion of their production before the end of the year to manage price risk for the season.
In terms of CBOT soybeans, favorable weather in Brazil, high global stocks, and a potential trade war with China have caused prices to fall. Locally, however, soybeans have stayed in a slight upward trend, and we expect this trend to continue for now, but keep an eye on the exchange rate—it could push prices lower.
Sunflower prices, on the other hand, have dropped slightly due to EU sunflower prices experiencing their first decline in a long time, which may indicate that we are near a peak for this market.
The stronger Dollar has particularly put downward pressure on CBOT wheat prices. Furthermore, good rains in the wheat-producing areas of the US have caused prices to drop as their harvest begins to improve, with Russia continuing to sell wheat cheaply. Over the long term, we expect Russia to play a smaller role in the export market as their local stocks are 10 million tons lower than usual and their next harvest is struggling due to drought. As we mentioned last week, we expect wheat prices to receive support and begin moving closer to global import parity levels. In the short term, we expect these prices to trade upwards and stabilize around the R6,200 mark during the first half of next year. Wheat prices have started receiving support after the major harvest pressure has passed.