Brought to you by John Deere and Zimmatic
Good day and welcome back to this week’s AMT John Deere Grain Market Overview.
Planting is officially underway across most regions, and conditions are looking very promising with excellent soil moisture and early rainfall. But… will a drier second half of the season and the renewed trade war between the U.S. and China disrupt global markets once again?
Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening in the maize, oilseed, and wheat markets, proudly brought to you by John Deere and Zimmatic.
🌾 Maize, Soybean, Sunflower, and Wheat Prices
- White maize: Spot price remains under pressure at R3,475/ton, with July 2026 futures trading at R3,540/ton.
- Yellow maize: Spot price at R3,381/ton, with July 2026 at R3,526/ton.
- Soybeans: Still soft at R6,825/ton, with May 2026 at R6,991/ton.
- Sunflowers: Spot price dropped to R9,800/ton, with May 2026 lower at R9,316/ton and March 2026 down to R9,594/ton.
- Wheat: Spot price down to R5,995/ton, and December 2025 futures slightly lower at R5,960/ton.
- Sorghum import parity (Durban): R4,590/ton
- Shelled Argentine peanuts: R22,480/ton
- Cotton: Down to R9,220/ton
🚜 Planting Progress and Outlook
Farmers across most regions have already started planting, and progress looks good thanks to early rains and favorable soil conditions.
This could lead to earlier deliveries next year.
Forecasts still suggest a drier second half of the season, motivating producers to plant earlier — but that comes with the risk of moisture stress later on.
The first detailed planting report, due on 28 October, will give a clearer indication of whether lower grain prices have shifted planting intentions.
At this stage, I suspect that:
- Maize plantings (white and yellow) could decline slightly.
- Soybean plantings might increase modestly.
- Sunflower could gain more ground this season.
📉 Market Forces: What’s Driving Grain Prices?
Last week, I discussed the four key factors currently keeping grain prices under pressure:
- Exchange rate volatility
- A larger local carryover crop
- Weaker exports to African markets
- Lower CBOT prices amid uncertainty in the U.S., China, and Brazil
This week, let’s zoom in on exports to Africa, which have had the biggest impact on white maize prices.
Data shows that South Africa has exported far less maize this year than in 2022 and 2023 — even less than last year, despite a smaller crop then.
Most exports over the past month went to Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Mozambique, with Zimbabwe only recently picking up volumes.
However, permits and high freight costs are keeping our prices relatively expensive, meaning Safex prices remain under pressure.
I expect exports to continue, but not at levels strong enough to push prices sharply higher early next year.
The larger crop is already priced in, and we’re now watching parity levels, CBOT trends, and the rand’s movement — all of which influence local grain and oilseed prices.
🌍 Global Context: Trade Tensions and Weather Risks
Internationally, Donald Trump announced on X (formerly Twitter) last week that the U.S. will impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese products.
That means we may see an escalation of the trade war, rather than a resolution — while the ongoing U.S. government shutdown adds more uncertainty.
It’s nearly impossible to predict how this will unfold, but hopefully a balance is restored before year-end.
In the meantime, these tensions could weigh on prices, while weather conditions in Brazil may play a crucial role in stabilizing or lifting maize and soybean prices again.
Because local prices are already near export parity (around R3,500–R3,700/ton), there’s limited downside left.
If the U.S. and China reach an agreement, we could see a strong rebound in soybean prices, while a dip in gold prices might weaken the rand slightly — giving local prices a lift.
🌻 Sunflower and Wheat Outlook
Sunflower prices are finding solid support around R9,200 for December, which keeps crushing margins positive.
Tight stock levels expected by end-February could lift prices further, though early plantings might cause some price softening in March.
Wheat prices are expected to remain relatively stable over the short term.
Meanwhile, peace efforts in Gaza and increased OPEC oil production have brought oil prices lower, which could translate into about a 40c/litre decrease in local diesel prices — excellent news for producers.
💬 Final Thoughts
This episode is brought to you by John Deere and Zimmatic.
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