Weekly Grain Market Overview | 13 August 2024

 by Student in Agricultural Insight, Grain Market, Grains, Weekly Market Overview Leave a Comment

The latest white maize spot price has risen week on week to R5,350, while the Jul’25 price has dropped to R3,998 per ton. The yellow maize spot price has decreased week on week to R4,115 per ton, while the Jul’25 price has fallen to R3,830. US maize prices typically reach their low point in the second half of September when harvesting is complete and the export program for the new crop starts. Traditionally, we see maize prices trending downwards from now until mid-September, but American analysts feel this low point will occur earlier this year due to Russia and Ukraine harvesting about 20% less maize and Brazil about 15% less. Thus, we may be very close to a bottom for the CBOT price now. Locally, we see that maize carryover stocks are very low, keeping our local prices high. The NAMC expects that there will be 53 days of yellow maize carryover stocks this season, compared to around 68 days in the last two seasons. White maize carryover stocks are only 31 days, down from 69 days in the last two seasons. For the next week, however, we expect the exchange rate to mainly indicate the direction of grain prices, with a stronger exchange rate potentially pushing prices down. We do think that prices may move upwards towards the end of the year due to higher international demand and low local stock levels.

 

The soybean spot price has dropped week on week to R8,480, with the May’25 price now at R7,700 per ton. The US soybean market typically reaches its low point by mid-August, with prices then moving sideways to upwards. Currently, there is a weather story developing in Brazil with soil moisture at its lowest levels in 74 years. If it remains dry in Brazil, we could see lower plantings which might support international prices. If Brazil also realizes a smaller harvest next season, China might need to import more from the US, potentially supporting prices as we move towards the end of the year. Locally, stock levels are also low, but the exchange rate will also now provide direction for the market in the short term and might also drop slightly.

 

The sunflower spot price has sharply decreased week on week to R8,800, while the May’25 price has fallen to R8,814 per ton.

 

The wheat spot price is currently at R6,340, with the December price at R6,222 per ton. Russia and France are facing production issues due to drier weather and weaker crops, while the US has a large winter wheat harvest nearing completion and the spring wheat harvest recently started. The CBOT wheat price remains at a lower level due to harvest pressure but keeps international prices higher due to production problems, especially in Russia, Ukraine, and France. Demand from other regions such as Egypt also helps to potentially put a floor under wheat prices. Locally, we expect wheat prices to receive support due to higher maize meal prices and consumers moving more towards wheat products like pasta and bread, which increases demand.

 

The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban rose last week to R5,634 per ton, the producer import parity price for shelled Argentine groundnuts fell to R29,582 per ton, while the import parity price for cotton is trading at R9,950 per ton.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

StudentWeekly Grain Market Overview | 13 August 2024

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