Welcome back to this week’s AMT John Deere Grain Market Overview.
China and the U.S. have reached a trade agreement — but if that’s true, why are global grain prices dropping?
In this week’s episode, I explore two possible scenarios that could unfold this season and how each might affect prices. Proudly brought to you by John Deere and Zimmatic Irrigation Systems.
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📉 Grain Price Overview
Here’s where the markets stand this week:
- White maize spot price fell to R3,645/ton, with the July 2026 price at R3,610.
- Yellow maize dropped to R3,510/ton, with July 2026 at R3,545.
- Soybeans declined to R7,271/ton, with May 2026 at R7,239.
- Sunflower seed rose to R10,360/ton, with May 2026 at R9,180.
- Wheat decreased to R5,809/ton, with December 2025 at R5,825.
- Sorghum import parity landed in Durban at R4,778/ton.
- Shelled Argentine peanuts traded at R23,671/ton, while cotton stabilized at R9,080/ton.
🌧️ Weather and Plantings
We start the week with good rain across most production areas, which should get planters moving strongly in the western regions too.
Moisture levels, large expected planting areas, and early yield expectations have kept maize and soybean prices trading near export parity for several weeks now.
However, last week’s SAFEX market prices surprised everyone, dropping despite the supposed U.S.–China trade deal.
China’s purchases were smaller than expected, sparking doubts about whether the deal is truly secure — which has limited any price gains.
The U.S. government will soon reopen, bringing updated crop size estimates. Early private forecasts suggest that the U.S. maize crop may still be larger than markets have priced in — which could add downward pressure in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s plantings are progressing well, keeping prices in check for now.
📊 Market Scenarios: What Could Happen Next?
Let’s look at the two main scenarios that could play out this season:
Scenario 1: Strong Crop, Sideways Prices
If planting continues smoothly and yields remain good, we’ll likely stay near export parity prices for most of the season.
In this case, global market developments in the U.S., China, and Brazil will drive local prices.
This is currently the most likely scenario.
There’s already a lot of negative news priced in — including low Chinese purchases, strong Brazilian progress, potential U.S. record crops, and a relatively strong rand.
If any of these factors shift, prices could find more upward support than further downside.
However, large stockpiles still sitting on farms and in silos could limit sharp upward moves once more grain hits the market.
Expect sideways trading in maize near parity levels through next year due to good supply.
In the U.S., we’re already seeing strong resistance around $4.35.
I’m slightly more optimistic about soybeans right now — global demand could increase, especially if China boosts imports and the U.S. plants fewer hectares.
But again, Brazil’s crop will play a big role in determining where prices go next.
Scenario 2: Weather Turns Dry
Some forecasts suggest a drier period in February or March, which could hurt local yields.
If that happens — depending on the damage — prices could move away from export parity, possibly trading between export and import parity as we move toward July 2026.
That would bring renewed support to the local market, even if global prices stay flat.
Currently, U.S. yellow maize export parity is around R3,600/ton, with import parity near R4,800/ton — a gap of R1,200.
For soybeans, export parity is about R7,200, with imports at R9,200 — a R2,000 difference, offering marketing opportunities if local uncertainty rises next year.
In the wheat market, China has started buying small quantities from the U.S., giving prices a modest lift.
That adds upside potential heading into the new year, although record harvests in many regions may cap price growth.
🧭 Final Thoughts
In summary —
We have good soil moisture, strong plantings, and a market that has likely overpriced the negatives.
There’s no reason for panic, but every reason to stay alert for new opportunities.
The coming weeks will be about patience and perspective.
If the weather holds, prices will likely remain stable near parity.
But any surprises — from weather shifts, global trade, or major producers like China, Brazil, or the U.S. — could trigger the next big market move.
🎥 This was your AMT Grain Market Overview, proudly brought to you by John Deere and Zimmatic Irrigation Systems.
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I’m Dr. Johnny van der Merwe — thank you for tuning in, and see you next week.