The latest spot price for white maize rises week-on-week to R5,523, while the July 2025 price increases to R3,915. The latest spot price for yellow maize rises week-on-week to R4,133, and the July 2025 price increases to R3,765. On the local market, lower stock levels, especially for white maize, have kept prices at a higher level and could push prices up further towards the end of the year. The expectation of possible rain later this season might still create upward potential in our local market.
On the international market, the CBOT corn price has also moved upward, but started to decline again on Friday as funds closed their short positions. We might now see increased harvest pressure in the US market, which could push prices down again, with some analysts expecting a new low by mid-October. On Friday, the USDA will release its latest crop estimate, which might indicate a slightly smaller corn harvest in the US due to recent dry and hot weather, but the expectation remains that a large harvest will be realized this year, countering upward price movements. We will also start focusing on Brazil and might see support for the market if rain stays away there.
The soybean spot price rises week-on-week to R8,630, with the May 2025 price increasing to R7,750 per ton. The sunflower spot price rises week-on-week to R8,975, and the May 2025 price increases to R8,750 per ton. The CBOT soybean price followed a similar trend to corn last week but experienced a greater impact from the price drop on Friday. Reuters conducted a survey on Brazilian soybean production, showing that, despite the current dryness, their crop could grow by about 14% year-on-year due to better genetics and a 1.4% increase in planted hectares. China continues to buy soybeans sporadically from the US but is concerned about the amount exported so far. Comparing current exports with last year, which was already the weakest export program in the past 10 years, there is currently about 5 million tons behind, indicating very low demand from China.
The focus will now shift to Brazil’s weather conditions, and we might see slightly delayed plantings due to the ongoing dry weather. If Brazil does realize a 14% larger soybean harvest this coming season, as indicated by Reuters, and China does not return to the market in a significant way, there is still significant downward potential for prices. It should be noted that soybeans are part of the oil complex, and higher market prices generally have the potential to pull soybean prices up or at least create a floor for the prices.
The wheat spot price decreases to R6,220, with the December price at R6,080 per ton. US stock levels still look good, but lower stocks from other key production areas have pushed prices up week-on-week. Locally, as we move towards the end of the season, imports are starting to decrease as local consumers make space for the upcoming harvest. They are also waiting to see the quality of our local wheat, which will determine where we will need to import wheat from to meet quality standards.
The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban decreased last week to R5,596 per ton, while the producers’ import parity price of shelled Argentine groundnuts further decreased to R27,650 per ton, and the cotton import parity price traded at R9,750 per ton.