The spot price for white maize drops to R4550 per ton, with the July price lower at R4337. The yellow maize spot price drops to R4250, with the July price lower at R4177 per ton. The soybean spot price drops to R7490, with the July price lower at R7615 per ton.
The sunflower spot price rises to R8959 per ton, with the July price also higher at R9134 per ton. The wheat spot price drops to R6391, with the December price now higher at R6297 per ton.
The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban stands at R5127, with out-of-shell Argentine groundnuts at R23,185, and the cotton price now stands at R10,320.
There is now talk that China and America may begin talks to possibly resolve the trade war. This could mean more trade between the countries and, in turn, provide a boost to grain prices, especially soybeans. It also seems that Russia and Ukraine are moving closer to a ceasefire, which could press prices down a bit. However, at the same time, it should be noted that the market no longer reacts much to news from the Black Sea region.
In the USA, we see that planting is progressing well and faster than the 5-year average. The risk during planting time is now decreasing, and analysts’ focus is shifting to the next critical period. The fear is that it may be drier and warmer in June, which could affect the quality and size of the harvest. Something that could also affect the markets is the bio fuel industry. Low oil prices could dampen demand for bio fuels, but it seems America plans to continue producing more bio fuel, which could counteract the downward effect. In the wheat industry, we see that the CBOT wheat price is still struggling to gain momentum and is trading downward because the Black Sea region keeps global prices low.
Last week, the April crop estimate was released, and white and yellow maize were adjusted upwards by 0.8% and 0.64%, respectively, with the total maize harvest now standing at a combined 14.66 million tons. Sunflower and soybeans, however, were adjusted downwards by 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively. The final wheat harvest and planting intentions were also published, with the harvest committee expecting 513,200 hectares of wheat to be planted, which is 1.56% higher than the previous season. The expectation is that this could grow even more due to the high soil moisture in most areas.
Our expectation is that white and yellow maize prices will continue their downward trend, but sunflower and soybean prices could trade slightly upward due to the downwards adjustment in harvest size. In terms of wheat, we expect prices to continue upward as seasonal trends suggest, and prices may peak around the end of July/beginning of August.
