The white maize spot price drops to R5380 per ton, with the Jul’25 price falling to R4355. The yellow maize price drops to R4815, with the Jul’25 price decreasing to R4125 per ton. The soybean spot price drops to R8600, with the May’25 price falling to R7700 per ton.
The sunflower spot price drops to R8999 per ton, with the May’25 price standing at R9000 per ton. The wheat spot price rises to R6100, with the Dec’25 price now at R6195 per ton.
The sorghum import parity price landed in Durban stands at R5526, with shelled Argentine groundnuts at R23,874, and the cotton price is now R10,380.
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The crop estimate was released last week and indicated that we are expecting just under 14 million tons of maize this season, which is a significant increase from last year. What was particularly interesting, however, is that the yellow maize estimate is expected to be lower by about 200,000 tons, while approximately 1.35 million tons more white maize is expected. So, it is really important to look at the two markets separately this season.
The yellow maize market is much more influenced by the CBOT price, and if we look at stock-to-use ratios in the U.S., we see that the U.S. is at 10%, which means they currently have quite low stocks. Looking at global stocks, we see they are at 23.6%, which is the lowest level in the last 10 seasons, possibly driving prices higher. So, we will need a large U.S. crop to replenish stock levels. The big news is that U.S. maize plantings could increase by 3.8%, and a record crop could materialize if favorable growing conditions continue. This could certainly put pressure on CBOT prices. Locally, we also have low stock levels, which could also push prices closer to import parity prices later in the year.
When looking at the white maize market, we need to focus much more on the Southern African region’s supply and demand and compare it with last year’s levels. Zambia and Zimbabwe have received good rains, and it is starting to look like they, along with other countries, may have an above-average white maize crop this season. Our expectation is that Zambia will again satisfy the DRC market’s demand for white maize and that we will have fewer exports to our neighboring countries, which could put pressure on white maize prices. Additionally, we have significantly more white maize locally this season, and this could potentially lead to a scenario where the July contract price for white maize could fall below the July contract price for yellow maize. The price level for yellow maize will, however, help prevent white maize from falling too far below.
In the soybean market, Brazil is harvesting a record soybean crop, and the USDA expects us to have the largest global stock in history, with our stock-to-use ratio being the second highest in history. Locally, the crop estimate has forecasted a 0.4% increase in soybean production, and we expect prices to decline slightly as we approach harvest time, but they could trend upwards again later in the year. Locally, sunflower production is estimated to be about 5% higher than the previous season, and this will likely put pressure on prices, as this market is small and relatively sensitive to higher supply.
The interesting part will be whether the crop estimate will be adjusted, as market movements are currently indicating that we might have a slightly larger crop, especially if favorable weather continues, but time will tell.
