Prices Under Pressure as Supply Increases

The fruit markets came under noticeable pressure last week, with most categories experiencing price declines as volumes increased across the board. While demand provided some support in previous weeks, the shift beyond the Easter period is expected to weaken consumption. As supply continues to build, the market is now transitioning toward a more supply-driven environment, which is likely to weigh on prices in the short term.

Bananas: Short-Term Strength, But Pressure Ahead

Banana prices were one of the few bright spots, increasing by 5% to R13.38/kg last week. Prices are now approximately 35% higher compared to the same time last year, reflecting relatively strong demand conditions. However, this upward trend is unlikely to hold. As we move past Easter, demand is expected to soften while supply increases, which could place downward pressure on prices in the coming weeks.

Apples and Pears: Seasonal Weakness

Apple prices declined to R8.79/kg, currently trading around 15% below last year’s levels. This reflects ample supply in the market, which is expected to keep prices subdued until around June. Thereafter, reduced production could begin to support a gradual price recovery. Pear prices also decreased to R8.14/kg but are expected to move in a more stable, sideways to slightly upward trend for the remainder of the year.

Citrus: Strong Supply Driving Prices Lower

Citrus markets are firmly under pressure as local production gains momentum. Orange prices dropped sharply by 26% to R5.42/kg following a 25% increase in volumes, highlighting the impact of supply surges on pricing. Lemon prices declined by 4% to R7.11/kg, while grapefruit prices also moved lower to R7.69/kg. With the citrus season now in full swing, continued high volumes are expected to keep prices under pressure in the near term.

Avocados: Stable for Now

Avocado prices decreased slightly by 3% to R14.06/kg, with the market currently showing signs of stability. Fuertes traded at higher levels compared to Hass varieties, reflecting typical seasonal dynamics. Current forecasts suggest a sideways price trend in the short term, although increased volumes could still introduce some downside risk.

Table Grapes and Berries: Volume-Driven Movements

Table grape prices increased by 16% to R24.34/kg as volumes declined, providing temporary price support. However, this trend is unlikely to persist, with prices expected to ease over the next two months before strengthening again during winter. Blueberry prices declined to R170/kg, reflecting changing supply dynamics and demand conditions.

Other Fruit: Continued Softness

Pineapple prices declined to R10.35/kg, adding to the broader trend of softening fruit markets. Across most categories, increased supply levels are outweighing demand, resulting in lower price levels.

Market Outlook: Supply Takes Control

Overall, the fruit market is shifting from demand-driven support to supply-driven pressure. With volumes rising across citrus, apples, and other key categories, and demand expected to ease post-Easter, prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term. While some products may experience temporary support due to lower volumes or seasonal factors, the broader outlook points toward softer markets in the weeks ahead.